Analysis of the Israel Elections

Letter to my friend in America about the recent Israeli Elections

Dear Steve,

The dust has not settled yet from the Israeli elections. The next step is to put together a ruling coalition, that means a majority of the 120 mandates in the Knesset. 

Many are predicting it will Netanyahu and the Likud (31 Mandates), Yair Lapid with 19, and "Bayit HaYehudi (religious nationalists, leader Naftali Bennet) with 12; forming a total of 62. However, because Knesset members of a given party may vote against the coalition on a specific issue, they probably will need to add a junior partner. 

There is a possibility that if Netanyahu's negotiations with Lapid are successful, which they probably will be, he will pursue bringing Labor into the coalition rather than the religious nationalists. This, however, may not sit well with his own party and may pave the way for a short reign. I don't think he will do it though.

I don't see the Heredi parties (United Torah Judaism aka Agudas Yisrael and Shas) playing a meaningful role. Most likely though, the head of Aguda, Ya'akov Litzman, will still be an effective lobbyist. 

It's going to take days or maybe even weeks for things to fall into place. I myself voted for Aguda and they did in fact do quite well winning 7 seats. Unfortunately I have serious objections to Heredi Ashkenazi social conduct and education. Consequently I don't object to them being out of power at least for the time being.

One of the key points of Lapid was the need for housing and a professional residential rental market in Israel. With that I'm with him 100%. Concerning the Arabs he was sprouting the conventional leftist line. I tend to believe that even though he may kind of believe what he was saying, it will turn out to be firing empty canons of rhetoric. Very few Jews particularly in Israel are in touch even remotely with the Arab mentality and point of view. The only one I've seen is Kach and they are on the fringe. 

Netanyahu does have a relationship with Rabbi Adin Steinsaltz. I do think that the Jewish presence should be expanded at sacred shrines like the Temple Mount, the burial place of the patriarchs in Hevron, Rachel's tomb in Bethlehem, and Joseph's tomb in Shchem (Nablus). 

I am somewhat optimistic about a Netanyahu, Lapid, Bennet triumvirate. While there are huge differences between them, I think there is going to be a rational discussion and that a reasonable path will prevail. It's quite possible that these three will be running the country for the next 15 to 20 years. This is the first time I've felt somewhat good about the Israeli elections since Menachem Begin. However time will tell.

Take care,

David Yoseph